Executive Summary
This analysis investigates the correlation between per-student education expenditure and student performance, as measured by average PISA 2022 scores, across 12 selected EU countries. Utilizing a framework based on the Sapir (2005) classification, the study groups nations into Nordic, Continental, and Southern blocs to compare systems with similar socio-economic structures, and traditions in education. The central research question is whether increased financial investment in education is associated with improved academic outcomes.
The study reveals a statistically significant, moderately strong positive correlation (r = 0.68) between spending and performance across the entire sample. This indicates that, overall, higher expenditure is associated with better PISA scores. The relationship is most pronounced in the Southern bloc (r = 0.72), where systems appear more sensitive to financial inputs, and weakest in the Continental group (r = 0.31), suggesting other factors may have a greater influence. The findings highlight that while Nordic countries generally pair high spending with high performance, outliers like Portugal and Poland achieve strong results on a modest budget, whereas France underperforms relative to its investment.
The analysis frames secondary school achievement as a crucial precursor to the production of tertiary-level STEM graduates, which is identified as a primary driver of economic innovation and growth. Consequently, the core policy recommendation is to prioritize increased investment in primary and secondary education, particularly within the Southern European countries where the link between funding and performance is strongest. The report concludes that while financial investment is a key lever for improvement in under-resourced systems, maximizing returns also requires a focus on spending efficiency and effective educational strategy to achieve the desired outcome of a larger pool of STEM graduates.
Introduction
The relationship between national investment in education and student performance remains at the heart of educational economics and policy reform in Europe. In particular, ongoing debates question whether increased financial inputs—measured as per-student expenditure—lead to improved educational outcomes, as captured by standardized assessments such as the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA).
This inquiry is especially salient within the European Union, where significant similarities exist but also disparities persist in both education spending and student achievement across geographic and economic blocs. We analyzed education spending and student Performance in a subset of countries in the EU, based on the Sapir's report of European socio-econonomic systems, and perform a correlational analysis using OECD's PISA 2022 data on the academic performance of 15-year olds.


